Working Papers


From Discussion to Action: Characterizing Areas of Reform in Latin America and the Caribbean (R&R)

with Luis Felipe Cespedes, Maria Orduz, and Sebastian Bustos.
[Blog Entry]

Abstract

Structural reforms modify the institutional and regulatory framework to foster economic growth and improve welfare. While initially linked to economic liberalization, the concept has expanded to encompass a more comprehensive array of sector-specific interventions. However, the increased level of detail in these reforms presents significant challenges in accurately identifying the specific type of reform implemented by each country. In this study, we employ a comprehensive analysis of the policy discussions in Article IV Staff Reports of the International Monetary Fund to shed light on the dynamic nature of reforms and unveil regional disparities in reform priorities. The findings demonstrate a notable shift in Latin American and the Caribbean countries, where there is a growing emphasis on reforms that prioritize transparency, enhance institutional quality, advance education and healthcare systems, and strengthen safety nets.


The Role of Institutional Quality on the Effects of Fiscal Stimulus

with Leopoldo Avellán, and Arturo Galindo.

Abstract

This paper provides evidence on the effect of fiscal stimulus on economic activity for countries with different degrees of institutional quality. For a panel of 113 countries during the period 1988-2017, we find evidence that an increment of 1% in government consumption yields a sizable, persistent and stable increase in economic activity of 0.9% in countries with higher institutional quality.


Preventing Sudden Stops in Net Capital Flows (Resubmitted)

with Eduardo Cavallo, Alejandro Izquierdo, and Santiago Gómez
[Previous Version] [Domestic Antidotes to Sudden Stops]

Abstract

Sudden stops in net capital flows can be prevented if domestic investors either repatriate foreign-held assets or roll over their local asset holdings when foreign investors stop lending or sell off their local asset holdings. This paper presents evidence showing that domestic factors such as low levels of liability dollarization, the consistency of the monetary and exchange rate regimes, low inflation, higher growth, and a solid institutional background, explain why some countries are more successful in eliciting the behaviors that increase the probability of preventing a sudden stop following a tightening of the external borrowing constraint. Prevention is key to offsetting an external credit crunch originating in factors that are usually outside the control of borrowing countries, which can turn into costly sudden stops in net capital flows in the affected economies.


Optimal Commodity Price Hedging

with Leandro Andrián, and Jorge Mondragón-Minero.

Abstract

The dependence of many countries in the region on oil exports makes them vulnerable to oil price volatility. In particular, the sharp declines observed between 2014 and 2016 show how public finances weakened with significant debt increases in these countries. A strategy to mitigate the effect of sharp falls in oil prices would allow oil exporting countries to suffer a smaller impact on their public finances. This paper shows that using put options to insure against oil price hikes lowers public debt and fiscal deficits.


Publications


The role of relative price volatility in the efficiency of investment allocation

with Eduardo Cavallo, Alejandro Izquierdo, and Arturo Galindo in Journal of International Money and Finance

Abstract

This paper estimates the impact of relative price volatility on sector-level investment allocation using a panel of 65 countries with data for 26 manufacturing industries over the period 1985–2003. Results indicate that volatility distorts efficient investment allocation in that investment is not necessarily devoted to relatively more productive sectors, especially in emerging market economies that are highly exposed and may lack the necessary institutions to deal with it successfully. This is evidence in support of theories suggesting that relative price volatility provides incentives for entrepreneurs to adopt more “malleable” but less productive production technologies, enabling them to accommodate more easily abrupt and frequent changes in relative prices, but at the cost of using less productive technologies.